Indigenous Aussie Population 7x Larger Before Colonization
New research estimates up to 2.22 million Indigenous Australians lived before the First Fleet's arrival in 1788, with a devastating 93% decline in less than 80 years

The Indigenous Australian population was significantly larger before the arrival of Europeans, with estimates suggesting up to 2.22 million people lived in the country. This is up to seven times larger than previously thought, with previous estimates ranging from 250,000 to 1 million people.
The research, published in Nature Human Behaviour, used computer modeling, ethnographic observations, archaeological and genetic reconstructions, and environmental carrying capacity assessments to estimate the Indigenous population size before colonization. The team, which included Professor Corey Bradshaw, Flinders University Global Ecology Professor, worked with Indigenous partners to investigate Indigenous population sizes over time.
The population density was estimated to be 0.29 people per square kilometer, providing a more accurate picture of the pre-colonial Indigenous population. The arrival of the First Fleet in 1788 had a devastating impact, leading to a 93% decline in the Indigenous population in less than 80 years.
## Why it matters Understanding the size of Indigenous populations in Australia before European invasion is essential to truth-telling and reconciliation. The new estimates provide a more accurate picture of the impact of colonization on Indigenous Australians, highlighting the significant losses suffered by the community. The research demonstrates the importance of working with Indigenous partners to investigate Indigenous population sizes over time and to rebuild the estimate of the pre-colonial Indigenous population.
The previous estimates, which ranged from 250,000 to 1 million people, were often based on limited data and did not account for the impacts of lethal diseases and other factors. The new research provides a more comprehensive understanding of the pre-colonial Indigenous population, using sophisticated computer modeling and a range of data sources to estimate the population size.
## What happens next The new estimates are expected to contribute to a greater understanding of the history and impact of colonization on Indigenous Australians. The research highlights the importance of ongoing reconciliation efforts and the need for a more accurate understanding of the past. As Professor Bradshaw notes, understanding the size of Indigenous populations in Australia before European invasion is essential to truth-telling and reconciliation.
The research team's work is part of a national research group working with Indigenous partners to investigate Indigenous population sizes over time. The team's findings are expected to inform future research and reconciliation efforts, providing a more accurate picture of the pre-colonial Indigenous population and the impact of colonization on Indigenous Australians.





