Lula Leads Bolsonaro by 1% in Brazil Runoff Poll

A BTG Pactual/Nexus poll has shown that Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro are statistically tied in a simulated runoff. In the poll, Lula would receive 46% of voter support, compared with 45% for Bolsonaro.

The poll surveyed 2,006 people from September 18 to 20 and has a margin of error of 2 percentage points. This means that the results are within a narrow range, and the actual outcome could be different.

In a first-round scenario, Lula would lead with 40% of the votes, followed by Bolsonaro with 37%, Augusto Cury with 6%, Ronaldo Caiado with 5%, and Renan Santos with 3%. This is a slight change from the previous first-round survey, which had Lula at 42%, Bolsonaro at 37%, and Cury at 6%.

The previous survey on September 14 had Lula leading Bolsonaro by 47% to 46% in a runoff. The new poll suggests that the gap between the two candidates has narrowed.

## What happens next If no candidate wins more than 50% of valid votes in the October 4 first round, the two frontrunners will advance to a runoff on October 25. This means that the election is still highly contested, and the outcome is far from certain.

The poll results suggest that the election is going to be closely fought, and the margin between the two leading candidates is very small. The actual outcome will depend on various factors, including voter turnout and the performance of the candidates in the remaining days of the campaign.