India to Face Above-Normal Temperatures in November

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast above-normal maximum temperatures over most parts of India in November, except for some regions along the foothills of the Himalayas. This temperature anomaly is expected to coincide with below-normal rainfall over most parts of the country, except for some areas in central, northwest, and Northeast India, where normal to above-normal rainfall is likely.

The IMD notes that India as a whole is likely to witness 77% of Long Period Average (LPA) rainfall during the month of November, with the LPA of rainfall over the country during the month of November, based on data from 1971 to 2020, being about 29.7 mm. South Peninsular India is also likely to experience 77% of LPA during November, with the LPA of rainfall over the region during November, based on data from 1971 to 2020, being around 118.7 mm.

Normal to above-normal rainfall is expected in Madhya Pradesh and adjoining parts of Maharashtra and Gujarat, as well as East Uttar Pradesh and Bihar during November. However, below-normal rainfall in Rajasthan and much of Gujarat could affect rabi crop prospects, as several areas lack assured irrigation.

## Why it Matters The forecast comes after substantial rainfall deficits in October, with several regions recording significant shortfalls. The below-normal rainfall in November could exacerbate the situation, affecting crop prospects and agricultural productivity. The very strong El Nino conditions prevailing over the Equatorial Pacific Ocean are likely to continue until December, which may disrupt normal temperature and rainfall patterns.

The IMD's forecast highlights the need for farmers and policymakers to be prepared for the potential impacts of below-normal rainfall on agricultural productivity. With several regions lacking assured irrigation, the below-normal rainfall could have significant consequences for crop yields and food security. As the country prepares for the rabi crop season, the forecast serves as a reminder of the importance of monitoring weather patterns and being prepared for potential disruptions to agricultural productivity.

## What Happens Next The IMD will continue to monitor the weather patterns and provide updates on the forecast. Farmers and policymakers will need to be prepared to respond to the potential impacts of below-normal rainfall, including implementing irrigation management strategies and providing support to affected farmers. As the El Nino conditions continue, the country will need to be vigilant in its efforts to mitigate the effects of disrupted temperature and rainfall patterns.