El Niño May Be Strongest in 4 Decades

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has warned that the current El Niño weather phenomenon could be the strongest in four decades, with the potential to deliver a massive blow to communities and economies across the world. The El Niño phenomenon is set to become very strong in the months ahead and is nearly certain to persist through February.

The WMO chief, Celeste Saulo, has stated that if the current trajectory continues, the El Niño may be stronger than anything since monitoring began. The El Niño will peak toward the end of this year, though its ripple effects on the climate will continue well into 2027. The 2023-2024 El Niño contributed to 2024 being the warmest year on record.

The relative sea surface temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region for the month of August were likely to be between 2.2C and 2.3C above average. The forecasts suggest relative sea surface temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region could peak over 3C above average, compared with the highest previous figure of 2.6C observed in January 1983.

The UN secretary general, António Guterres, has stated that the planet is in uncharted waters, and those waters are heating up. El Niño is a naturally occurring phenomenon and is not caused by climate change, but scientists expect it will exacerbate the heat of a planet already warming from burning fossil fuels.

## Why it matters The potential consequences of a strong El Niño are significant, with impacts on rainfall and temperature patterns, and associated risks of floods, drought, and extreme heat. The WMO has warned that the world is in the danger zone of extreme weather, and the effects of El Niño will be felt globally. The phenomenon is expected to have a major impact on communities and economies, particularly in regions that are already vulnerable to extreme weather events.

## What happens next As the El Niño phenomenon continues to strengthen, the WMO will closely monitor its development and provide updates on its potential impacts. The organization has warned that the world should be prepared for the potential consequences of a strong El Niño, and that measures should be taken to mitigate its effects. The UN has also called for increased action to address the root causes of climate change, which is expected to exacerbate the impacts of El Niño.