Italy's Population to Shrink by 4 Million by 2050

Italy's population is projected to shrink by almost 4 million by 2050, according to the national statistics bureau ISTAT. The country's resident population will fall to 55 million in 2050 from 58.9 million at the start of 2025, before dropping to 45.8 million by 2080.

The population decline is expected to be uneven across the country, with southern Italy suffering the steepest losses. The region's population will fall from 19.7 million in 2025 to 16.7 million in 2050, while central and northern regions will see a more modest decline.

Annual births will remain broadly stable until 2030, before falling to 335,000 by 2050. In contrast, deaths were projected to rise from about 652,000 last year to a peak of 869,000 in 2058 as Italy's large post-war baby boom generation reaches old age.

The share of Italians aged 65 or over is expected to jump to 34.5% in 2050 from 24.7% in 2025, while the proportion of people of working age will fall to 55.3% from 63.4%. This demographic shift will pose significant challenges to the country's economy and welfare system.

## Why it matters The shrinking population and aging workforce will have significant implications for Italy's economy and welfare system. A shrinking pool of workers and a surging number of pensioners will pose new challenges to the economic system and welfare. Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has stated that boosting the birth rate is a government priority, but so far, efforts have produced scant results. Births have declined steadily since 2008 and fell last year to around 355,000, the lowest number since Italy's unification in 1861.

## What happens next The Italian government will need to address the challenges posed by the declining population and aging workforce. This may involve implementing policies to boost the birth rate, increase immigration, and reform the welfare system to ensure its sustainability. The demographic decline will also have significant implications for the country's regional development, with southern Italy requiring targeted support to mitigate the effects of population decline.

The demographic projections highlight the need for urgent action to address the challenges posed by Italy's declining population. The government will need to work to boost the birth rate, support families, and ensure that the welfare system is sustainable in the long term. The consequences of inaction will be severe, with significant implications for the country's economy, welfare system, and regional development.